Acetic acid: exports were restored to normal levels
With the recovery of the international oil price, the advantage of foreign acetic acid cost gradually weakened, and with the alleviation of the epidemic, the foreign demand returned to normal, the domestic acetic acid export volume also gradually recovered to the normal level.
According to customs statistics, domestic acetic acid exports in January and February 2021 were 30,500 tons and 45,200 tons respectively, of which 37,000 tons were exported to India in the two months, accounting for 48.88% of the total exports in the two months. It was followed by exports to Belgium, which accounted for 19.82% of the total exports in the two months.
Due to the strong demand for acetate and PTA in India and the Chinese Lunar New Year in February, buyers in India actively purchase goods before the Spring Festival. In addition, due to the impact of the cold wave in the United States, the acetic acid plant of Lidean and Celanese in Texas in the United States stopped, and the supply gap in Europe increased. Therefore, the amount of acetic acid sent to Belgium increased significantly in the last two months.
Domestic acetic acid export prices rose in late February, and some export orders were shipped in March. It is expected that the export volume will continue to increase in March.
After the Spring Festival, domestic acetic acid prices soared, almost in a straight line (see chart). According to Zhong yu Info data, up to now, the mainstream price in Jiangsu has increased by as much as 1300 yuan/ton compared with before the Spring Festival, and the current price has reached the highest point in the history of nearly ten years. Meanwhile, the theoretical profit value of acetic acid enterprises has also exceeded the historical high level of 3500 yuan/ton.
During the Spring Festival holiday, Henan Shunda did not restart, and Anhui Wuwei acetic acid plant stopped unexpectedly, Hualu Hengsheng also stopped for maintenance after the Spring Festival, but the industry operating rate maintained at about 8.5 percent of the conventional level. And small and medium-sized downstream before the Spring Festival has been more parking holiday or negative. The fundamentals of domestic supply and demand support general, driving the market crazy up the factors are mainly the export market booming.
As the Arctic front moved south, most parts of the United States suffered the coldest weather in nearly 20 years in mid-to-late February. Texas suffered massive power outages, and local acetic acid plants were bound to be affected. Both Celanese and Lydeon acetic acid plants in Texas were shut down. Although the United States imports a small amount of acetic acid from China, the supply of Europe and other countries dependent on the United States is not enough, and Europe and other countries have increased their imports from China. In addition, demand from India also remains normal. After the Spring Festival, the domestic export price rises together, and the export price is much higher than the trade price in the same period. Exporters actively accept goods for export, and acetic acid factories should also ensure the demand of long-term contract users. Supported by the double positive, domestic acetic acid manufacturers' post-holiday inventory remains at a low level.
At present, part of the downstream can not bear the pressure of high costs, have reduced production or parking operations, domestic trade demand performance is weak, leading to a loosening of traders' mentality. It is understood that the current export negotiations are focused on FOB China of USD910-920 / ton (equal to RMB 6,500 / ton), and external inquiries are active, and exports are still strong. And the current acetic acid factory inventory is not high, according to Zhongyu information statistics, the current social inventory of about 110,000 tons, the domestic market still has a certain support. Long - short interweaving, short - term view, the domestic acetic acid market high finishing.