Acrylonitrile: The demand side is stable and improving, and the market is firm and upward
1. Price Trend
As of August 29, mainstream quotations in East China have decreased.
Second, this week's market review
This week, the domestic acrylonitrile market price probed up in a narrow range. At the beginning of the week, the market price of acrylonitrile was high and firm, and the listing prices of major factories in East China rose, which boosted market sentiment. However, downstream demand was cautious, and the spot market price was high and firm. A week later, the market price of acrylonitrile was firm and upward, Anqing Petrochemical released the maintenance news ahead of schedule, the market bullish sentiment was high, and the manufacturers were very willing to support the price, and the spot market price increased within a narrow range.
3. Market outlook forecast
Supply forecast: The 260,000-ton/year plant of Jiangsu Sailbang Petrochemical Phase II is planned to be restarted in October, and the 780,000-ton/year acrylonitrile plant may be raised to about 70%; Tianchen Qixiang's 130,000-ton/year plant will be shut down on August 11 , the restart time is temporarily uncertain; Anqing Petrochemical's 210,000-ton/year unit is scheduled to be overhauled on October 29 for a period of 60 days; Liaoning Baolai's 260,000-ton/year new unit is expected to be put into operation at the end of October, and the supply in October is expected to increase steadily.
Demand forecast: The start of downstream ABS has steadily increased, the overall start of 85% is above the level, and the start of the acrylic fiber industry and the acrylamide industry has remained stable. Export: Foreign trade orders increased. The overall demand side is stable and improving.
Cost forecast: From October, some propylene plants that were shut down in the early stage are expected to recover, but new downstream production capacity also has a trial run plan. The boost in consumption peak season continues. It is expected that the market operation will remain in a strong range, but as the peak season effect subsides, superimposed After some downstream parts were repaired as planned in the middle and late months of the month, the demand support was weakened, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the field was likely to intensify. It is expected that the propylene market will be strong and then weak in October, and pay attention to the changes in the supply and demand structure and the guidance of macro news.
On the whole: the supply in the field is expected to increase, but the overall inventory pressure in the market is not large. In addition, the demand side is stable and improving, and the supply and demand side may remain stable; the cost side is trending strongly, and the cost pressure is still there, and acrylonitrile manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices , but the market's upward momentum is insufficient, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market may fluctuate slightly after the holiday. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in downstream receiving sentiment and the trends of manufacturers.
